No. of Recommendations: 2
They could have enriched to 80% at any time prior to June.Have you been briefed to the capabilities of their scientists and centrifuges?
They might have intimated to Witkoff that they could build 11 bombs if they wanted. But they didn't yet do it.The Hiroshima bomb was 80% enriched and weighed 9700lbs (4400kg). Assume modern manufacturing techniques and take 1500lbs out of that. Now you're down to ~8200lbs (3700kg). They don't have a B-29 to deliver something like that.
They could put it on a ship, but that's slow and ports are scanned for radiation. Have been since 9/11.
So that leaves ballistic missiles -
the thing the idiot JCPOA was entirely silent on - as the most likely delivery vehicle.
Right now Iran can loft about 1,500kg to ~1,000km in range. Their multistage weapons can only do about 500kg to 6,000km downrange. They have a long way to go.
https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-...Thus: No, they're not stopping. They need to develop their ballistic missile capability and make that first-rate first.
But how would anything we get out of Iran today be any different? We want them to ack that their old statements were lies, get out of the nuclear business altogether, and stop developing long range ballistic missiles.
Ask China how hard it is to build long range rockets that don't land on the next vil over and blow it up.
Yes, they're fairly helpless, just like Iran was helpless to stop the U.S. from just blowing up all their stuff. Sometimes you don't get a vote. Sometimes you don't have the defensive capabilities to stop what the other side wants to do.Helpless? Hardly. New drone-killing systems are coming online that reduce the cost of waxing a Shahed down to $10 bucks (the price of 1 .50 cal round). They mount on pickup trucks. Can't throw a rock in the Middle East without hitting a Toyota Hilux and the Saudis/others have plenty enough gasoline and cash to pay some dudes to drive up and down the length of the pipeline shooting down drones. Plus the US has excellent radar warning coverage with more on the way.
With 80% of Gulf oil going to Asia, not Europe, and the defensive liabilities of ~500 miles of pipeline running through mostly uninhabited areas that are nearly impossible to blanket defend against drones and missiles, a Saudi-Israel pipeline is a deeply unfeasible way of reducing the potency of Iran's ability to seize the strait.Yeah, not really. Nobody said that the Asian-bound oil would be loaded in the Mediterranean. Why would it? Just build enough capacity for Europe's needs. For Asia expand the capacities of the Red Sea pipelines.
One way or the other, the Iranians are done. They finally tugged hard enough on Superman's cape and now they have his attention. And by "Superman" I mean that as a euphemism for a United States/Israel/Gulf Coast State multibody, politically aligned (on this issue) group of nations.
