I know most of the tribals are all "trump sucks!" - that's cool. But I enjoy politics - as politics and am amble to separate my preference from strategy or predictions or just plain shooting the shit.

Unexpected things have happened during the Presidency.

Bush 1 - Gulf War

W - 9/11

Trump 1 - Covid

So I wonder..... will there be some surprise thing, good or bad during this Presidency? I have 1 vague one, 1 slightly specific one.

Foreign Policy
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Do the NeoCons get him into a new war in the Middle East?

Do the hawks and Big Defense folk get him to finally make WW3 Official?

I'm not too confident on either - methinks 35% chance.

Domestic Policy
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Interest rate problems.

Not quite a default on debt but a situation where a good non-EuroLoser economy does ok BUT creditors are balking at the worsening debt situation pushing borrowing costs higher than most have imagine

And does that mean - sluggishness? Stagflation? Out and out default?

Those things I think are a good 50-50 chance.

75% that the national credit rating gets dinged at very least.

Bottom line: What to Starbucks Baristas, AutoWorkers, Port Workers, Pilots, Stewardesses, the CostCo greeter, the Apple Store employee, the Boeing employee all have in common? ALL are getting union RAISES. HEFTY ONES. And much of that is only now gonna hit the economy.

The combo of higher wages, decent consumer and employment health, + debt downgrade---- could be one hell of a problem.