No. of Recommendations: 1
I know most of the tribals are all "trump sucks!" - that's cool. But I enjoy politics - as politics and am amble to separate my preference from strategy or predictions or just plain shooting the shit.
Unexpected things have happened during the Presidency.
Bush 1 - Gulf War
W - 9/11
Trump 1 - Covid
So I wonder..... will there be some surprise thing, good or bad during this Presidency? I have 1 vague one, 1 slightly specific one.
Foreign Policy
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Do the NeoCons get him into a new war in the Middle East?
Do the hawks and Big Defense folk get him to finally make WW3 Official?
I'm not too confident on either - methinks 35% chance.
Domestic Policy
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Interest rate problems.
Not quite a default on debt but a situation where a good non-EuroLoser economy does ok BUT creditors are balking at the worsening debt situation pushing borrowing costs higher than most have imagine
And does that mean - sluggishness? Stagflation? Out and out default?
Those things I think are a good 50-50 chance.
75% that the national credit rating gets dinged at very least.
Bottom line: What to Starbucks Baristas, AutoWorkers, Port Workers, Pilots, Stewardesses, the CostCo greeter, the Apple Store employee, the Boeing employee all have in common? ALL are getting union RAISES. HEFTY ONES. And much of that is only now gonna hit the economy.
The combo of higher wages, decent consumer and employment health, + debt downgrade---- could be one hell of a problem.
No. of Recommendations: 1
The Chinese are going to try something. They've stepped up their cyber war against the US with zero response from us. They'll continue applying pressure to the Philippines and Taiwan. Expect them to also play games with critical materials the US needs. Trump should counter by declaring a "National Supply Chain Emergency" and issuing an exec order to remove obstacles from mining here in the US.
On the economy. Trump is going to kill Biden's regulations and return to what really fueled the economy in his first term - it wasn't just the tax cuts - it was a much more clear regulatory environment. The energy sector and its supporting industries will benefit first. Export any and all restrictions on LNG exports to go first, freeing up the US to supply the europeans and wean them off Russian Nat gas.
It's a race now. The Chinese have a plan that in 2027 they load up and start taking territory. If you want a crisis, that's going to be it. Can Trump get the Navy ready to fight over 4,000 miles of Pacific Ocean in time?
