No. of Recommendations: 7
My guess is that Ukraine is toast...
Not necessarily. The lack of US aid would be a setback, for sure. But we're not the only ones giving them aid. I believe Zelensky already told someone in this administration to go pound sand (with respect to giving up territory).
And Russia is having issues of their own. They're starting to import DPRK soldiers (who, evidently, really suck...the Ukrainians are slaughtering them). Their "bone yards" are almost empty (they've been reactivating equipment from the era of Khrushchev).
On paper, the Russians already should have won. But, through various factors including incompetence, their advance was halted early on. It's been a slow meat grinder ever since. It's really a question of attrition at this point. The Russians will be out of inventory within 18 months (estimates vary, and it does depend on whether you're talking armor or artillery). And they are suffering far more casualties. They do get shells from DPRK, but some reports say that about 30% of them misfire or don't work.
It is not a sure thing that Ukraine can last another 18 months, but it is possible. They have shown tenacity, and innovation, and adaptability. And they're getting a lot of support from the EU. The Russians have yet to be able to retake Kursk.
There's a YouTuber called "Perun" that does weekly deep-dives into this stuff. Really deep. And occasionally he interviews people from military-oriented thinktanks. He cites his sources, and usually does very conservative estimates. If you're really interested in this sort of thing, check out his content. In addition to this sort of analysis, he's really into the defense economics angle, which you generally don't get in an article of 2000 words.
