Jim ..... No indicator will ever be perfect - as I wrote before - I really like DBE because - its an uncorrelated time dependent approach - as opposed to price ( Although the new High is price driven). It just sorta provides enough of a long noose for the market to start to hang itself. That being said amongst the other BCs - this one has the highest MDDs - for the reason you mentioned. It also of course was long thru COVID - any sudden event driven risk cant be handled because of the underlying "Bears have a way of working itself to form" assumption.

Here's the current status of the group of DBE indices I track ( This list was once generously shared by Zee)

(1) SP500 : 41 days
(2) NDX100 : 41 days
(3) COMPQX: : 83 days
(4) DJ-30 : 91 days
(5) NYSE : 94 days
(6) IXF-X : 95 days
(7) RUT-X : 97 days
(8) IWV ( Russell 3000) : 41 days
(9) IWB (Russell 1000) : 41 days
(10) SP100 (OEX-X) : 41 days


So the broader market (without the Mag 7 ish ,FANG etc) has been much weaker - with Dow, Small Caps, NYSE all poised to hit in next 10-15 days

Best
AC

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