That being said amongst the other BCs - this one has the highest MDDs - for the reason you mentioned.

Again, just to beat the dead horse, it's not actually intended as a long/short timing system, and it's not even that great at long/cash, which is how one would find a maximum drawdown. The two states aren't bull and bear, they are best interpreted as "bull market" and "no idea".

The main purpose is to identify those stretches that really smell like an ongoing bull market, as it makes sense to invest in those stretches in a different way. For example, faster timing systems are probably not worth the bother, and fairly aggressive quant screens and growth stocks will probably do well on average. During the other stretches, the recommendation has always been to use a faster and more discerning timing signal, or just be prepared for strong ups or downs.

Jim

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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