The no-new-highs-lately bull market signal has been around for a while now. It says you're still apparently in a bull market if there has been a fresh recent market high within the last 99 trading days. Since publication, the times marked "good" have been mostly and accounted for almost all of the market gains, while the rest of the time has gone pretty close to net nowhere. That's pretty much as hoped...it was intended mainly as a bull detector and never had much to say about the rest of the time which is a jumbled mix of good and bad.

However, the average forward return falls surprisingly steadily depending on how long it has been since a recent high. The 99 day cutoff is a little bit arbitrary.

As a little reminder of that, I just wanted to mention that
(a) The signal was long right through the crash of 1987, which took place only 38 trading days after the most recent high, and
(b) The S&P 500 is currently at 41 days and counting : )

Jim

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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