Post #172 by mechinv on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks ❤

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Record high? Rates have returned to more normal levels from RECORD lows

The last time the 10-year T-bill was above 5% was in 2006, which was 17 years ago. So, yes, I should say that it's a record high since Shakira sang "Hips Don't Lie" - a looong time ago.

As far as a history lesson, interest rates on the 10-year kept going UP from 2004 through 2006, and yet stocks did fine through that period. Here are the returns.

Year S&P 500  Peak
     Return   10-year rate
2004   9%       4.8% 
2005   3%       4.6% 
2006  14%       5.0%

From the beginning of Jan 2004 through December 2006, interest rates went from 3.8% to 4.8% on the 10-year, and yet the stock market delivered a total return of 28% over that 3-year period.

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