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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: tecmo ⎊☼  😊 😞
Number: of 4582 
Subject: Re: End of an era - profit slowdown
Date: 12/14/23 3:39 PM
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Here is a historical chart of the 10 year bond yield - gives some perspective on things - and why we aren't anywhere close to record high interest rates.

macrotrends.net - Year treasury bond rate yield chart

At first glance it would appear there is very little correlation between the rates and equity returns. Interest rates dropped significantly from 2000 - 2010 yet stock returns were pretty dismal. The thing to focus on are profitability and valuation (the value of those profits). Interest rates act as a headwind or tailwind for both. When interest rates rise, the cost of capital increases which reduces profitability. In addition when rates rise, the relative value of those profits can be diminished.

You aren't going to see this show up in equity returns immediately, but it will start to drag on things for sure.

tecmo
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