*                         3/24     3/31     4/7      4/14/25
S&P 500 Index             5667.56  5580.94  5074.08  5363.36
Trailing 12 month PE      26.11    25.63    23.24    24.62
Trail Earnings yield      3.83%    3.90%    4.30%    4.06%
Forward 12 month PE       21.93    21.55    19.54    20.77
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.56%    4.64%    5.12%    4.81%
90 day tbill yield        4.33     4.33     4.28     4.34
10 year tbond yield       4.25%    4.27%    4.01%    4.48%
Arezi Ratio               1.13     1.11     0.99     1.07
Fed Ratio                 0.93     0.92     0.78     0.93

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 67%
stocks, 33% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 47%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 78%.

Elan

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