Post #3788 by tjscott0 on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

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https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ceasefire-iran-u...

Trump asserted that Iran had agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open during the two-week pause in hostilities. Negotiations, he added, will proceed over that period on the basis of Iran’s 10-point plan, which he described as a “workable” foundation for talks.

The United States has not, of course, signed on to all ten points. But the mere fact that Iran’s framework will anchor the negotiations amounts to a significant diplomatic victory for Tehran. More striking still, according to the Associated Press, Iran will retain control of the Strait during the ceasefire and continue — alongside Oman — to collect transit fees from passing vessels. In effect, Washington appears to have conceded that reopening the waterway comes with tacit recognition of Iran’s authority over it.

HM. What happened to the president's March 6 demand for Iran's unconditional surrender?

Iran adventure=Strategic Blunder.

https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/the-pent...

The notion that air power alone can decapitate its leadership, destroy its infrastructure, and produce regime change represents a fantasy that scholars have debunked repeatedly over the past century. Yet here we are, over a month into Operation Epic Fury, watching Washington learn these lessons the hard way.

None of this should surprise anyone who has studied the actual historical record on air power and coercion. Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago who also taught at the U.S. Air Force’s School of Advanced Airpower Studies and authored Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War, has analyzed over a century of air power history. His conclusion is unambiguous.

“I’ve studied every air campaign since World War I, and in all that time, over 100 years, air power alone—without ground forces—has never toppled a regime,” Pape told MS Now. “There have been times when there have been pro-democracy movements in combination with the air power; it has never worked. It has not worked in the dumb-bomb age, the smart-bomb age. We’ve tried so many different combinations, so much intelligence, and it has never worked.”

There has been a few general firings recently. I wonder if those generals brought up the fact that Iranian air attacks would not bring the desired result?

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