No. of Recommendations: 4
We're likely to just be replacing a very problematic partner for China with a far better one for them, on our own dime. Hopefully it doesn't work out that way. Hopefully we pull an inside straight and a government emerges that is not: i) the existing regime; ii) a faction of the existing regime that's still hostile to the U.S.; iii) a stalemate between multiple factions that are hostile to the U.S.; or iv) chaos and failed state.
Every day that passes, more Iranians die at the hands of US/Israeli forces. Most of the soon-to-die have families, that will remember. That will not engender warm feelings of good will among the population for the US/Israeli interests. That would make "ii" the most likely scenario, if an organized government emerges.
Will a non-hostile, organized government emerge, without the US/Israel forcing "Prince Reza" down their throat, in a replay of 56? Doubt it.
"Hope" that it will all work out for the best, is not a strategy.
I'm betting on "iv", chaotic failed state, as that will cut oil supply from the market, for the benefit of other interests, ie a replay of Libya.
Steve
