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There's also oodles of conspiracy theories there, do you think any of those are highly likely?
What I think is likely is that the Israelis didn't want that ship offshore. I have read some of the more outlandish conspiracy theories, but I tend to go with Occam's Razor...the simplest explanation. I don't, for example, think the Israelis were trying to fool the Americans into thinking it was the Egyptians attacking (and, therefore, enter the conflict on their side). Frankly, they didn't need us. They were handling the situation quite well by themselves. They just didn't want that ship there.
As you say, "no smoking gun either way". So I tend to go with the accounts of the people who were there. But we will never really know for certain.