Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) |
Author: Mark19   😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: bitcoin a loser
Date: 12/13/25 12:05 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 4
I'm no fan of putting money into bitcoin, to say the least, but this is innumeracy. To match the "compound return", it has to have the same start-to-end CAGR. By definition. That will of course vary with the time period chosen, for both choices, but the size of the squiggles along the way don't change your ultimate annualized rate of return.

They are perhaps thinking of risk adjusted returns using volatility as a proxy for risk? That's an entirely difference species of idiocy.


I think they do. A simple example will explain it better than a verbal explanation.

Stock 1. you start at 100. It goes up 20% year 1, and 0% year 2. You have 120.00

Stock 2. It starts at 100 and goes up 10% year 1, and you have 110. It goes up 10% year 2, and you have 121.00.

Example 2. Stock 1 starts at 100, and goes down 50%, and you have 50.00. It then goes up 50% and you have 75.

Stock 2 starts at 100, and goes up zero, and you have 100.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to Mark19 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,224 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community