*                         11/24    12/1     12/8     12/15/25
S&P 500 Index             6602.99  6849.09  6870.40  6827.41
Trailing 12 month PE      27.61    28.57    28.62    28.38
Trail Earnings yield      3.62%    3.50%    3.49%    3.52%
Forward 12 month PE       23.67    24.47    24.47    24.24
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.23%    4.09%    4.09%    4.12%
90 day tbill yield        3.90     3.88     3.71     3.63
10 year tbond yield       4.06%    4.02%    4.14%    4.19%
Arezi Ratio               1.08     1.11     1.06     1.03
Fed Ratio                 0.96     0.98     1.01     1.02

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 68%
stocks, 32% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 58%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 89%.

Elan

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