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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Retirement Investing
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Author: suaspontemark ✶☼🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 1355 
Subject: Re: Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate for 2026
Date: 12/09/25 10:34 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 9
it is 4% (ish, maybe 4.x%) for this allocation for a 30 year horizon. PhD economist Karsten Jaske (BigERN, as he's known online, being 6'7" and ERN = Early Retire Now) did a 50+ part treatment on his website of the crazily nitty gritty details of SWRs for longer horizons.

I'll save everyone the read (I made it through about 1/4 of his entries). If you want a 40-50+ year horizon, 3.25% is safe for like 90something percent survivability across Monte Carlo simulations.

Dr. Jaske's series is here - earlyretirementnow.com - Safe withdrawal rate series - and as he pulled off FIRE in his early 40s, he definitely has skin in the game.
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This community has written 1,284 posts about Retirement Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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Buying Treasuries Via Vanguard · 10 recs · 2023
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