No. of Recommendations: 5
10 month (200 day, 43 week) Simple Moving Average of the S&P500 has been backtested to 1950.
As has GTT (Growth and Trend Timing).
If you are trying to find a timing scheme that will work to slide over every little drop, you are doomed to failure. That's why "so many market timers do well for a while then fall flat over time".
Trying to a consensus of several systems is futile. It has the same problem of deciding which of dozens or hundreds of systems to use. You've just traded tde decision of which system to use for the decision of which set of systems to use. It's the same problem, just one step deeper.
You can't make a silk purse out of sow's ears, no matter how many sow's ears you use.
"The moving average timing strategy makes the majority of its money by avoiding large, sustained market downturns. To be able to avoid those downturns, it has to accept a large number of small losses associated with switches that prove to be unnecessary."
"We don't need to be perfect, we only need to be Good Enough."
