Post #525 by DTB on the Falling Knives board

Investment Strategies / Falling Knives

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No. of Recommendations: 6

Forward P/E now about 23, which isn't nosebleed by modern standards. Softened with the 1.68% dividend yield.

I didn’t expect a Monaco resident to appreciate the dividend! Plus, it’s double counting. Those dividends are just part of the P.

More importantly, Novo is the owner of the Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus franchise, whose USA patent protection expires in 2026 (different in each country) whereas Lilly’s dual agonist tirzepatide is probably the better drug and has many years of patent protection left, not to mention Lilly’s triple agonist retatrutide which is even better but which is not yet licensed.

So although Novo’s P/E looks reasonable, the E is going to be challenged in the next few years and the ‘bargain price’ may just be the market applying the appropriate haircut.

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