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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 670 
Subject: FKA: NVO
Date: 01/28/2025 5:52 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Novo Nordisk at $86.23 at the moment pre-market. Down 42% from its 52 week high last June, despite Friday's modest pop.

Not that huge a fall, but hey, didn't you spend a bunch of the last year and a half wishing you had got in early on the weight loss drug bandwagon? The price is back where it was then, and the recent news is actually positive so maybe the cutlery has already bounced off the (relative to market) floor.

If one is interested in the outlook, it's not hard to find information. A random article today https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvo-stock-rises-obe...

Forward P/E now about 23, which isn't nosebleed by modern standards. Softened with the 1.68% dividend yield.
Forward earnings estimates (for any given period) have been rising. This has been almost the best predictor of relative stock movements lately, other than having a trillion dollar market cap : )

I was musing about perhaps buying a couple of out-of-the-money long-dated calls as lottery tickets.
Not sure what I'd pick, but as a random example, Jan 2027 $100 calls which can probably be bought under $16 would at least triple in value if they returned to their 52 week high some time in the next 2 years. Maybe some beer money.

Jim
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