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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 41600 
Subject: Re: Priorities
Date: 11/01/2024 10:55 PM
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What is her top economic priority? ...
I can answer that for Trump, pretty easily. It's tariffs and protectionism. That's something he cares passionately about, something that's a reason why he's running for office. He wants a more mercantilist economic policy, with the U.S. negotiating preferential deals rather than a global "most favored nation" free trade regime. He's got other non-economic priorities (The Border!), but that's his top one on the economy. Number two would be tax cuts.


The U.S. trade balance hasn't changed much in the last 15 years: we import about 15% of GDP, and export about 12% of GDP. Trump's first term policies created headlines, but did not change the top line numbers. The top line numbers are small anyway. Most of the U.S. economy is domestic production and consumption.

  DATE    Imports  Exports  Balance
7/1/2024 14% 11% -3%
7/1/2023 14% 11% -3%
7/1/2022 15% 12% -3%
7/1/2021 14% 11% -4%
7/1/2020 13% 10% -3%
7/1/2019 14% 12% -3%
7/1/2018 15% 12% -3%
7/1/2017 15% 12% -3%
7/1/2016 15% 12% -3%
7/1/2015 15% 12% -3%
7/1/2014 16% 13% -3%
7/1/2013 16% 13% -3%
7/1/2012 17% 14% -3%
7/1/2011 17% 14% -4%
7/1/2010 16% 12% -4%
7/1/2009 14% 11% -3%


Imports and Exports as Percent of GDP
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xPFx

And there is a similar story on the border. Obama deported more people than Trump, and Trump did not come close to his promise of "the largest deportation in history". Again, Trump's actions in his first term generated headlines, but did not change the actual number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. by much. Trump is lots of talk, but no results.

Trump did deliver on his 2nd economic priority: tax cuts for billionaires.
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