Do you believe that had the shutdown continued, the GOP would have relented and agreed to the ACA subsidy extension?

No.

What is the actual path to end an outcome…

Same as now, except that more people, particularly Republicans would have gotten the message. It’s the jackass & the 2x4. Sometimes you have to get their attention. ACA recipients with huge increases. Food banks overrun. SNAP participants cut off. And, the flying public (including many upper-middle class Republicans) severely inconvenienced across the holidays.

Add to the smaller irritations of inflation not decreasing, grocery prices continuing to rise, and those unhappy with the demolition of the East Wing, the Constitution, and the Rule of Law (and yes, some Republicans are slowly coming to realize that) and the Democrats have given up one of the most potent (the only!) weapon they have had in years.

It’s a thing about momentum: it takes a big oomph to get it going, all those little things aren’t going to do it. But once the boulders starts rolling, the little things add to it. (See: Watergate, and how long it took to “get going” and how it was unstoppable later.)

Would people be hurt? Yes. Sorry about that, but then I’m sorry about soldiers killed in action, people who don’t like national monuments desecrated, police hurt in the line of duty, people forced out of their jobs for being ethical, and so much more.

The Democrats threw away the chance to make an impression with those who most need to learn the hard way, because making their lives easier means they won’t learn it any other way at all.

The position the Republicans have been taking all along is, ‘we’re not going to negotiate about the ACA as long as the government is shut down.’

Andthey’re not going to now, and they let Republicans off with almost no pain. Not a winning strategy.