It could possibly get 60 Senate votes, but Johnson would never let it hit the floor in the House

Of course not. Johnson hasn't seen enough pain personally yet. And he's got a very tenuous grip on his gavel. One slip away from the MAGA line and he'll be "McCarthyed".

I don't see anything happening until the 2026 elections at best. If these tariffs stay in place until then, I foresee a MAGA bloodbath in the mid terms. Probably flip the House to Democrat, and potentially primary a few MAGAs back to more centrist traditional GOP candidates (meaning people willing to compromise to get part of what they want instead of sticking to the Trump win-lose view of things). Senate is a much harder lift for Democrats. Too many Dem seats up for re-election, and too many very red seats on the GOP side. But we could see a move from MAGA to a more centrist GOP there as well.

--Peter