Invite ye felawes and frendes desirous in gold to enter the gates of Shrewd'm, for they will thanke ye later.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 5
Some numbers I am tracking
Quarterly forecast
Revenue : $110B --> I expect a big upside surprise here
EPS : $2.65
On a TTM Basis, Google would hit $400B in revenue and $10.64 in EPS. At $335 / share ($4T), this puts implies a PE of 31 and a P/S of 10x - both on the very high end of the recent historical range.
tecmo
...
No. of Recommendations: 2
Here's Gemini's "opinion":
"Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, after the market close.
The company is entering this report with significant momentum; over the last four years, it has transformed from a post-pandemic "ad-dependent" giant into a dual-engine powerhouse driven by Google Cloud and Gemini AI integration.
Alphabet Quarterly Earnings History (Last 4 Years)
The following table highlights the "actual vs. consensus" performance. Note that Alphabet's earnings volatility decreased significantly in 2024 and 2025 as its AI monetization strategy became clearer to Wall Street.
Quarter Report Date Actual ConsensusBeat/Miss %ActRevenueBeat/Miss
Q3 2025 Oct 29, 2025 $2.87 $2.26 +26.99% $102.35B+$2.21B
Q2 2025 Jul 23, 2025 $2.31 $2.15 +7.44% $96.43B +$2.39B
Q1 2025 Apr 24, 2025 $2.81 $2.02 +39.11% $90.23B +$1.08B
Q4 2024 Feb 4, 2025 $2.15 $2.12 +1.42% $96.47B -$0.20B
Q3 2024 Oct 29, 2024 $2.12 $1.85 +14.59% $88.27B +$2.05B
Q2 2024 Jul 23, 2024 $1.89 $1.85 +2.16% $84.74B +$0.45B
Q1 2024 Apr 25, 2024 $1.89 $1.51 +25.17% $80.54B +$1.83B
Q4 2023 Jan 30, 2024 $1.64 $1.59 +3.14% $86.31B +$1.02B
Q3 2023 Oct 24, 2023 $1.55 $1.45 +6.90% $76.69B +$0.78B
Q2 2023 Jul 25, 2023 $1.44 $1.34 +7.46% $74.60B +$1.83B
Q1 2023 Apr 25, 2023 $1.17 $1.07 +9.35% $69.79B +$0.88B
Q4 2022 Feb 2, 2023 $1.05 $1.18 -11.02% $76.05B -$0.48B
Q3 2022 Oct 25, 2022 $1.06 $1.25 -15.20% $69.09B -$1.59B
Q2 2022 Jul 26, 2022 $1.21 $1.28 -5.47% $69.69B -$0.28B
Q1 2022 Apr 26, 2022 $1.23 $1.28 -3.91% $68.01B -$0.10B
Q4 2021 Feb 1, 2022 $1.53 $1.36 +12.50% $75.33B +$3.50B
Prediction for Q4 2025 (Reporting Feb 4, 2026)
Wall Street consensus currently projects an EPS of $2.58 – $2.64 and Revenue of $111.43 billion.
Predicted Result: A Substantial Beat
EPS Prediction: $2.92 – $3.05 (a +11% to +15% beat).
Revenue Prediction: $113.8B – $114.5B (a +2.1% to +2.7% beat).
Rationale:
AI Infrastructure Spend: Historically, Alphabet’s largest beats (Q1 2025 at 39%, Q3 2025 at 27%) have coincided with surges in Google Cloud backlog. As enterprise AI "agents" became mainstream in late 2025, Cloud revenues likely accelerated beyond the 28% growth modeled by analysts.
Seasonal Ad Strength: The Q4 holiday period usually benefits from a massive retail ad cycle. Despite competition from platforms like TikTok and Meta, Google’s "Search Generative Experience" (SGE) has actually improved ad click-through rates by providing more direct answers.
The "Margin of Error": Over the last four quarters, Alphabet has averaged a 19% surprise in EPS. Analysts have slightly lowered the consensus from $2.64 to $2.58 in the last 30 days, which lowers the hurdle and sets the stage for a "snap-back" beat."
No. of Recommendations: 1
Water the flowers
No. of Recommendations: 10
Water the flowers
Hmmm, depends on your tolerance for "flat spots". And whether your position is in a tax sheltered account.
Here is some poor reasoning, but illustrative of the general idea:
Alphabet's net margins go up and down a fair bit, so sometimes people look at price to sales ratios.
Sales per share have been growing 15-16%/year lately. Nice.
The current price to trailing sales ratio is 2/3 above its average of at most 7x in the last 10-15 years. (and if anything a dollar of sales will be worth less in future, not more, as capex & depreciation are exploding with the revenue/asset ratio)
Put those two together and you're looking at a central expectation of around four years of zero price growth and 15-16% revenue per share growth to get to a typical multiple valuation multiple based on sales, assuming that there is no slowing in sales per share, no change in net margins, and no regime change in terms of valuation "norms".
Alternatively, you could see the recently typical P/S valuation level of 7x by an immediate price drop of -35 to -45%. I do not predict this, but it's something worth being aware of. Current valuations are a lot higher than what has been usual for this firm; turn that observation into whatever prediction you prefer. But I wouldn't recommend assuming "they'll stay this high".
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
yep that is what makes a market. Google is my 2nd largest position after Berkshire.
No. of Recommendations: 7
yep that is what makes a market. Google is my 2nd largest position after Berkshire.
I'm long GOOGL too. But not *nearly* as much as I was a while back : )
The higher the valuation level of any security, the lower the prospective return and the higher the risk. I size to suit.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
As a point of reference, a year from now we might expect TTM revenue of $462B and EPS of $12.50 / share. Using a 8x and 25x multiple would imply a price range of $305 to $315 per share.
The stock has had many periods of run up and then back to the trend, so this is my expectation going forward. I have lightened up a bit, but still have more than a usual amount invested here.
tecmo
...
PS: Currently at $333 as a type this...
No. of Recommendations: 0
Good morning all,
I also find myself with a large percentage of my net worth in GOOGL (in taxable accounts sitting on long term capital gains). If the central expectation is that the stock will be flat or even down going forwards after its tremendous run-up this last year (that run-up is why the holding is now a large percentage), could one strategy be to sell covered calls to make up the expected flat or downturn.
For example, the current 20Mar2026 GOOGL 330 CALL is trading at 15.30/15.45, which essentially "sells" the shares at 330. You can keep rolling them up and out if you are wrong, and if the price goes down or flat, you pocket the time premium (currently the whole of it).
If my calculations are correct, that is about 5% return for 60 day holding.
Thoughts? And any specific thoughts on holding the options across the earnings announcement?
--G
No. of Recommendations: 7
If the central expectation is that the stock will be flat or even down going forwards after its tremendous run-up this last year (that run-up is why the holding is now a large percentage), could one strategy be to sell covered calls to make up the expected flat or downturn.
Sure. Whether it makes sense to you might depend a lot on your tax position. If it's a taxable account, you may be hesitant to liquidate shares that you intend to hold long term?
If you pick puts that are at high enough strikes that your shares are unlikely to be called away, it's probably not worthwhile. That's because you really want to pick the deal that is equally attractive to you whether the shares are called away or not. The simple reason is that the market will give you whichever outcome looks worst for you on the specific day of expiry.
I was in a similar situation with DG recently. I had a big position and it looked like the rally might be running out of steam so I sold some calls against some of the position. Weighted average net exit price including call premium $157 and change, current price is $142, so at the moment it looks like I'll have gained having done it. Emphasis on "at the moment". I didn't simply sell the stock as I think it will actually be higher in a year, so I was really on the fence and the calls seemed like a suitable wishy-washy solution.
On the other hand, there is much to be said for simplicity. Just sell some. Cash could come in handy some day, you never know.
On your specific example:
For example, the current 20Mar2026 GOOGL 330 CALL is trading at 15.30/15.45, which essentially "sells" the shares at 330. You can keep rolling them up and out if you are wrong, and if the price goes down or flat, you pocket the time premium (currently the whole of it).
If my calculations are correct, that is about 5% return for 60 day holding.
I would think of that as "selling" the shares at $345. That's the amount of cash you get on exercise date, plus the premium you got up front. I can't think of any reason to be sad about lightening up at any price that represents (say) more than 10 times sales on the date of exit.
I tend to pick slightly longer dated calls, simply because the premium is higher in absolute terms, but it's a matter of taste.
To your comment about being able to roll them: it isn't quite t rue. It is more true for longer dated ones than shorter ones. You *might* be able to roll them--odds are high for so long as the options have time premium that the counterparty could realize at the bid--but you might not be able to, for the simple reason that they could in theory exercise at any time.
Jim
