This very thread!

Did someone say that the U.S. tried to open the straits and failed? In this thread or any other? I must have missed that. Could you point me to it? My position, and I think it's the same as those of other folks, is that the U.S. hasn't tried to open the strait because it would be enormously difficult to do so - in exactly the same way that we haven't tried to overthrow the regime through a ground forces invasion. We could do it, with a combination of naval, air, and ground forces occupying the various islands and coastal areas surrounding the strait. But it would be immensely costly in terms of lives and resources, so we're not willing to do it. For the same reason we're not willing to launch a ground invasion.

The strait's been closed for > a month now. Why isn't oil at $400 a barrel right now?

TACO, of course. :)

The market has been optimistic that the supply interruption will be short, and that the temporary shortfall caused by a modest closure of the strait would be accommodated once it re-opened. Ameliorated by draws on the strategic reserves that were announced early in the conflict. That's why the spot price for oil has been so much higher than the futures price. Dated Brent for immediate delivery is trading closer to $140-150.

I put the smiley on there because it's not truly "TACO," in the sense that markets thought Trump would necessarily turn tail and run. Rather, Trump has continually assured markets that the conflict will be brief, that he felt our war aims had already been achieved, and that Iran was on the verge of giving us everything we want. Right? He has been constantly assuring the markets that the war would be 4-6 weeks, that we were on schedule, that this wasn't going to be a long drawn-out conflict. So I think markets have generally assumed that there was some bundle of things that Iran was already willing to concede that Trump was pretty close to deeming acceptable, and that therefore any shortages would remain in the short term and only affect spot prices. That's also while U.S. oil drillers haven't been expanding capacity - they, too, have been expecting that the conflict would not drag out. But if we really are settling in for a long blockade, you can expect prices to really start climbing.