No. of Recommendations: 1
So hitting "several" checkpoints and militia positions are highly unlikely to have any material impact over any materially relevant period of time. We'll see how it goes, but the clock is ticking. We've used up probably about a quarter of the time we have to conduct this operation - if the Straits remain closed for more than another six weeks, the global economic catastrophe will make the Great Recession look like a mild downturn, and I don't think Trump has the stomach for that. I also don't think we have an effective option for opening the Strait as long as the regime wants it closed. So if we're going to try to undo the regime by knocking out Basij checkpoints, we're not going to be able to achieve that by hitting modest enough numbers that one would report that "several...are said to have been hit overnight." It would have to be massive numbers and unequivocal.
<Venkman>
Dogs and cats, living together, Mass hysteria!
</Venkman>
