No. of Recommendations: 5
Iran is presumably letting some of their ships through. If they want to play the game of Oil Denial, then other people can play also: seizing Kharg brings their oil exports to zero.
Again, we can do that. But will that accomplish our goal, or will it just lead Iran to then close the strait for the duration and resume striking the energy infrastructure in the region?
Fine, if they can take punches. If the initial tune-up didn't work, then put the neighborhood thug in a wheelchair.
And what if that doesn't work? What if putting the neighborhood in a wheelchair doesn't solve the problem, but instead leads the neighborhood thug to kill your pets, set your car on fire, and kidnap your kids (to continue the analogy)?
The assumption with the bully/neighborhood thug is that at some point he stops fighting back. He either quits or finds someone else to pick on. That's what lets you achieve your strategic goal (getting him to stop harassing you and the neighborhood) without actually killing him and taking the consequences of killing him.
If your opponent is weak or cowardly, that can work. You can get "regime modification." But if your opponent is neither weak nor cowardly, they may respond to your escalation by always continuing to hit back, and there may not actually be a low-cost way of "winning" that conflict.
