No. of Recommendations: 3
I don't think they'd sail the navy through the strait. They'd escort the vessels through the blockade. The US Navy isn't going to set up their blockade in the area that's mined - they'll be seaward of that spot....which means they have to sail through the mines, collect their vessels, then sail back through the mines and through the US Navy. They aren't doing that.
As for "burning up the phone lines" to get Tehran to cut a deal, that seems unlikelyAnd yet, they've already done it:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/world/asia/chin...
Beijing appeared to have helped push Tehran to accept the two-week deal with the United States, reflecting China’s growing influence and its stake in avoiding a wider war.That's some fine spin by the NYT, but the reality is that Iran mining the strait slows down Chinese oil imports. It's that simple.
That's why I worry about Chinese-flagged vessels being a potential solution they employ. That ramps up the stakes dramatically.Sure. They can step in and flag Iranian ships.
That would be a hilariously stupid thing for them to do.
So they won't.
Well, that effectively closes the straits, though. If we're not letting Iranian oil through, it's doubtful that Iran will let other oil through - or any of the other cargo that's being held up, like natural gas or helium or fertilizer. That's going to put a lot of stress on the global economy - to say nothing of those "other Gulf states," which we would like to have as allies as well.erm. the Gulf states are egging the US on. They're DONE with Iran.
It becomes a contest of which side is willing to suffer more punishment. Is the U.S. willing to endure rampant price increases and (perhaps) a worldwide recession bordering into a depression? Is Iran willing to endure the damage to its economy? With leadership in both countries being fairly insulated from political pressure from the people (Iran's not a democracy, Trump's not up for re-election), this could go on for quite a while...Except if the Navy can clear a navigation channel through the mines. You left out that part.
