No. of Recommendations: 4
I'm betting on "iv", chaotic failed state, as that will cut oil supply from the market, for the benefit of other interests, ie a replay of Libya.I'm not sure Libya is the real model for that outcome, though. The oil still flows from Libya - production hit 1.4 million bpd last year, the highest since 2010:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LBYNGDPMOMBD That's because Libya's a dysfunctional, but not chaotic, state. It's riven by a stalemate between two competing factions. That prevents it from having a functional national government or institutions.
But it's not actual chaos, and it's in everyone's interest for oil production to continue.....so it does.
