No. of Recommendations: 2
IEA report: "Which sectors do these increases come from? In climate-driven scenarios, mineral demand for use in EVs and battery storage is a major force, growing at least thirty times to 2040. Lithium sees the fastest growth, with demand growing by over 40 times in the SDS by 2040, followed by graphite, cobalt and nickel (around 20-25 times). The expansion of electricity networks means that copper demand for grid lines more than doubles over the same period.
The rise of low-carbon power generation to meet climate goals also means a tripling of mineral demand from this sector by 2040. Wind takes the lead, bolstered by material-intensive offshore wind. Solar PV follows closely, due to the sheer volume of capacity that is added. Hydropower, biomass and nuclear make only minor contributions given their comparatively low mineral requirements. In other sectors, the rapid growth of hydrogen as an energy carrier underpins major growth in demand for nickel and zirconium for electrolysers, and for platinum-group metals for fuel cells."
Texirish:
To meet the projected demand for these minerals at the scale envisioned for EV's will require many new mines, all powered by fossil fuels, and in time periods probably not achievable due to regulations, suppliers, and costs. Environmental impacts would be huge.
These mineral demand figures tend to fall into the "uncomfortable truths" category for EV's enthusiasts.These are valid considerations, but I think the IEA article is way too pessimistic. We are not going to convert to mostly electric transportation overnight, it is much more likely to take 15-20 years. The article talks about mineral demand for use in EVs and battery storage growing 30-40 times, framing the question in a way that sounds alarming, but the real question is, what do these extra mineral requirements for EVs and storage add to the existing demand for these minerals, not just from EVs and storage but from all other uses? I don't have the answer to that, but most uses of copper, nickel, cobalt do not involve EVs and storage. For instance, most copper is used in building construction and electronics, not EVs. Big increases in EV copper use will not have a big impact in total copper use. And for lithium, which really will see big increases in the total demand, there is oodles of it in the ground, and despite huge increases in use over the last 10 years (28 000 tons in 2010, 180 000 tons in 2023), and although this particular element has had very volatile prices in the last few years, prices are similar today to what they were 10 years ago:
https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.p...
