No. of Recommendations: 3
Not to pile on the subject, but the ability of EV's to significantly reduce CO2 emissions on a life cycle basis is not as well understood as many people assume.
Here's a recent article (August 2021) on the subject:
https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/22/the-tough-calcul...These are the lead-in paragraphs from the article:
Investors and politicians embracing a vision of an all-electric car future believe that path will significantly reduce global carbon dioxide emissions. That’s far from clear.
A growing body of research points to the likelihood that widespread replacement of conventional cars with EVs would likely have a relatively small impact on global emissions. And it’s even possible that the outcome would increase emissions.
The issue is not primarily about the emissions resulting from producing electricity. Instead, it’s what we know and don’t know about what happens before an EV is delivered to a customer, namely, the “embodied” emissions arising from the labyrinthine supply chains to obtain and process all the materials needed to fabricate batteries.For those interested enough in the subject to read the article, here are some teasers:
"A growing body of research points to the likelihood that widespread replacement of conventional cars with EVs would likely have a relatively small impact on global emissions. And it’s even possible that the outcome would increase emissions.
The issue is not primarily about the emissions resulting from producing electricity. Instead, it’s what we know and don’t know about what happens before an EV is delivered to a customer, namely, the “embodied” emissions arising from the labyrinthine supply chains to obtain and process all the materials needed to fabricate batteries."
"For example, one review of 50 academic studies found estimates for embodied emissions to fabricate a single EV battery ranged from a low of about eight tons to as high as 20 tons of CO2. Another recent technical analysis put the range at about four to 14 tons. The high end of those ranges is nearly as much CO2 as is produced by the lifetime of fuel burned by an efficient conventional car. Again, that’s before the EV is delivered to a customer and driven its first mile.
The uncertainties come from inherent — and likely unresolvable — variabilities in both the quantity and type of energy used in the battery fuel cycle with factors that depend on geography and process choices, many often proprietary. Analyses of the embodied energy show a range from two to six barrels of oil (in energy-equivalent terms) is used to fabricate a battery that can store the energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline. Thus, any calculation of embodied emissions for an EV battery is an estimate based on myriad assumptions. The fact is, no one can measure today’s or predict tomorrow’s EV carbon dioxide “mileage.”
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Porgy and Bess is one of my favorite operas. It includes the song: "It Ain't Necessarily So". Sadly, that may also be the case with EVs when all is said and done. Meanwhile many billions, maybe trillions. will be spent on the assumption that we alaready know this is the best solution to light vehicle transportation.
My grandmother had an expression that's stuck with me through life. It goes:
"Experience is the best teacher - if you don't pay too high a price."
The risk that we're doing so is real.
