as always, when you have a math illiterate potus, there is an immense barrier to comprehending how badly both sides can lose.

trump - no limit on how much taxpayer cost he will spend (even if on israel's behalf), nor burned political goodwill with allies (much less countries that have delivered huge personal bribes).
iran - no limit of civilian casualties and crisis; theirs or anyone else.
both - no limit on longterm gulf region infrastructure cost and downstream damage to global economy.

2 recent podcasts support much of this with interesting details.
doomsberg- this right-leaning longtime trump supporter concluded using the most credible sources from gulf countries; iran is winning on a strategic basis (pain endurance) and surprisingly on many tactical fronts (via drones, decades of preparation, and support from russia,china). this is not just propaganda, but reports from american allies in the area.

energyflux- recession already guaranteed in a few nations, and surprised if all western nations avoid.
trump will need an ENDLESS ground war to ever recover the discounted risk of hormuz transit. expect iran to have even less qualms of breaking terms (and striking ships) than trump did during 'negotiations'.
however, this is nothing compared to both sides escalating bombing civilian (power, water) infrastructure, as it will trigger the greatest refuge crisis ever seen, fueled by unprecedented tens of millions that can afford to escape the region.
(the gop need to 1000X the price of a trump gold visa, cause his saudi friends will be coming !)