In night #1 of the Democratic National Convention, the prime time agenda devoted a segment allowing three different individuals to share their personal stories regarding the impact of abortion bans on women's freedom and health. The stories were very effective at conveying the stupidity and cruelty of abortion bans but the presentation missed an opportunity to make a crucial point regarding the election. The summary tying the three threads together made the point that voting for Kamala Harris is the lynchpin to toppling the state-level abortion bans that have blocked access to critical care for a third of all American women.

That's not actually the case.

The premise of that simplification is that if Harris gets elected, when a bill establishing nationwide abortion rights is passed, she will sign it and the issue is solved.

That's not remotely the case. The manner in which Roe v Wade was overturned was such that it not only threw the issue back to state control, it altered the logical basis by which any future abortion related law would be decided from a mode where the right was presumed (and a case needed to justify why it should be eliminated) to a mode where the existance of the right is NOT the default assumption (and re-establishing it requires finding a constitutional basis). That means ENSURING abortion rights can be re-instituted and retained requires:

1) winning control of the House
2) winning 60% control of the Senate to avert filibusters
3) winning the White House
4) enacting changes to essentially pack the court with at least four additional justices

Why? Because even if Democrats managed to pull off #1, #2 and #3 and enact a bill that gets signed by President Harris, that law will trigger IMMEDIATE lawsuits that will rocket up the appeals court docket to the US Supreme Court which will immediately rule that the new law is unconstitutional. On what grounds? I have no idea. And frankly, the six existing justices that gave us the abhorrent ruling in 2022 have no idea either. But they will find it. Logic and precedent have nothing to do with the decision, just like they had nothing to do with their 2022 decision.

That means unless the next President has enough of a majority in the Senate to avoid filibusters to enact legislation and prevent filibusters of USSC nominations, nothing will likely change with the current status of abortion rights in America. Possibly for another 20-30 years until the newest justices appointed by Trump age out and exit the bench. That's how legally and politically dire the abortion sitation is in America right now. There's no sugar-coating it.

That means for those focused on the issue of abortion, this isn't a simple decision to vote for Kamala and you're done. Work is required in every US House and US Senate race. And not just in 2024. Focus is required for every House and Senate race until those majorities can be attained.


WTH