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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: FlyingCircus ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 6245 
Subject: GTAA-4/6 outlier - absolute & relative momentu
Date: 02/17/23 10:32 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 13
If one follows the basic GTAA (Ivy) approach to asset allocation, most asset classes are "investable" now as they are above their 8-10m MAs.

However, the GTAA-4 or 6 systems (labeled "Aggressive" and "Moderate" by Faber respectively) have an uncommon situation right now. The top 6 are all "in" on an absolute momentum basis, but on a relative basis only US small caps and Foreign Developed large caps are now ranked higher than Cash (BIL). (Based on an average of ranks of 1,3,6 & 12 month returns).

So the GTAA-4 ranked allocation 3 weeks ago (a full allocation to 4 equity classes ahead of cash) is now cut in half.

The anomaly is due to the passage of the last few weeks with a 1 year lookback. The markets were pretty volatile on a week-week basis starting late last January before they started the real bear in early April. Now that volatility is showing up as the 12 month-lookback rank portion "tail" wags the rankings "dog" now.
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
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