*                         1/30     2/6      2/13     2/20/23
S&P 500 Index             4070.56  4136.48  4090.46  4079.09
Trailing 12 month PE      23.04    23.46    23.40    23.78
Trail Earnings yield      4.34%    4.26%    4.27%    4.21%
Forward 12 month PE       20.12    20.58    20.32    20.28   
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.97%    4.86%    4.92%    4.93%
90 day tbill yield        4.73     4.70     4.79     4.84
10 year tbond yield       3.52%    3.53%    3.74%    3.82%
Arezi Ratio               1.09     1.10     1.12     1.15
Fed Ratio                 0.71     0.73     0.76     0.77

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 62%
stocks, 38% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 42%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 85%.

Elan

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