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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Outskirts of Shrewd'm / Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics
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Author: TheReitStuff ⎊☼🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 314 
Subject: Interesting Segro bid (UK REIT)
Date: 07/23/26 4:55 AM
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Segro is the biggest UK REIT (by far), they do big box logistics and urban logistics and recently moved into datacenters*.

As well as being a traditional REIT managing property assets, they are also a property developer.

They recently got a series of bids from the US REIT Prologis, mostly stock**.

After some 'nope', Prologis finally got an 'OK' from Segro's management last night.

Segro was trading at 600-610p last September***, 640p in April 2026, and this bid is around 1030-1050p. Trading today around 950-960p.

A 50% jump in 4 months, plus a dividend, isn't a terrible rate of return.

There is a possibility the bid might be blocked, or fail for other reasons.

A share price at 950p vs bid 1030-1050p suggests a moderate probability of that.

-

If you are looking for other potential bid targets in the UK, most of the smaller UK REITs have already been bid up near NAV in the last few months, presumably for that reason.

To the point I think they're hardly investible in their own right, given poor scale/costs and external management.

But large REITs like Derwent London (London central/prime offices, 2000p price vs 3300p nav) and Unite (student property, 550p price vs 955p nav) haven't been pushed up to NAV and might get a bid.

There's also an interesting question about what happens if Segro leaves the market. They are by FAR the biggest UK REIT.

A US REIT won't qualify to be in a UK ETF (e.g. property ETF, FTSE100), nor will it have the tax advantages of a UK REIT for UK investors. That will generate future selling pressure on Prologis.

-

This is just my own understanding and feelings about the situation, please remember to research & check all claims if any of this matters to your investing.

TRS

* which is one reason why I didn't hold them

** Prologis is very overpriced imho at 33-34x P/E; if I held Segro I'd be selling to the market for cash right now

*** Segro was trading at a very similar discount to NAV compared to UTG, actually. (SGRO stock price in april 640p, vs NAV, 905p, down from 925p last year).

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