No. of Recommendations: 1
ME:I think an increased presence coupled with willingness to manhandle boats, etc., should get the point across without ruining "face".
1PG: Not sure I get this. He would lose face if he backed-down, especially after all of the rhetoric about the dashed line (SCS) and the renegade province (ROC). Unless he's willing to take that hit to his reputation, he'll have to escalate.
I see the escalation we've seen as a reflection of his authority and the need to distract from the economic problems at home. So if he takes the small land pieces on the Chinese mainland that Taiwan owns, and we are very firm in the seas and skies, that can go on indefinitely. What we're likely to see is brinksmanship. It will take us time to wean ourselves off China, but you have to hand it to China how far and fast they've come.
China's recent history is that of oppression and belligerence. I always thought it would be a natural for them to expand into Russia, but they made peace there. I don't think they'd mind having a clash or two with us, but not an all out war.
We don't want a war and I'm not confident we'd win it even though we have more experience, and that counts a lot. We just want to stare them down.
