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The Chinese rammed a Philippine vessel with a 60 Minutes crew on board.

They are getting ever-more belligerent. Marcos is going to have to be more assertive. There is a time for restraint, but I think he's been more than tolerant. Time to fight back.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/philippines-china-sea...

I read something (but can't find it now) that the US and Philippines are talking about possible actions, and US involvement.

As a side note, Vietnam is hardening their stance against China. China is also harassing them, but not as badly, and not as publicly. Plus we don't have a defense treaty with Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the UK has also warned China.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-warns-chin...

I don't see China backing down. Assuming the Philippines becomes more assertive about their internationally recognized waters, there will be some shooting soon. Which China will lose badly. Australia, Japan, the US, the UK, and even Germany are siding with the Philippines (a German warship recently made port in the Philippines).

We -the West- need to ween ourselves off cheap Chinese labor as quickly as possible. First, to starve their economy (which helps us in a conflict), and second, to make sure we can make stuff we need without relying on China.

Well, the Philippines left Sabina shoal after 5 months, and they ram another ship. We are working out when we come in. China wants to stay shy of causing a war, but they may cause to come in and increase our presence. It isn't clear just how much control they have over the fishing boats out there. Vietnam has been hardened toward China, and Vietnam is reclaiming the shoals, building their own islands. I don't think the Philippines has the money to do that.

China reneged on the infrastructure funding for Duterte, but they were muscling the Philippines before that. We now have more bases there, but we wanted to build a radar complex on the west side of Palawan island that never happened. Sabina is off the western end of Palawan, and Muslims live on that western part of the island.

China recently flew a jet into Japanese air space, lays claim to some southern Japanese islands.

Australia, Japan, the US, the UK, and even Germany are siding with the Philippines (a German warship recently made port in the Philippines).

And if Trump gets elected?

We -the West- need to ween ourselves off cheap Chinese labor as quickly as possible. First, to starve their economy (which helps us in a conflict), and second, to make sure we can make stuff we need without relying on China. - 1pg

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At the top of the repatriate manufacturing list should be chip manufacturing. China can grab Taiwan more or less whenever it suits them, and when they do, we are deep shit. I know the Chips Act addresses this, but the Biden Admin accomplishment naturally includes so many DEI requirements that the necessary focus and urgency is encumbered.

And if Trump gets elected?

Trump is a pacifist on international relations, so I'd expect him to cozy up to Xi and let him have the whole South China Sea if that is what Xi wants. He'd toss in the Philippines and Taiwan, too, if Xi asks. Just keep sending us your cheap goods - and the Taiwanese chips.

--Peter

At the top of the repatriate manufacturing list should be chip manufacturing. China can grab Taiwan more or less whenever it suits them, and when they do, we are deep shit. I know the Chips Act addresses this, but the Biden Admin accomplishment naturally includes so many DEI requirements that the necessary focus and urgency is encumbered.

The Chips act is only part of it. In 5 years Intel will the "United States Semiconductor Manufacturing" corporation.

The other part is...raw materials. China controls a lot of the trace metals needed to produce silicon in the first place. It's not enough to merely move the fab to the US and starve them of the machines AMAT and ASML make; we need to start mining for rare earth stuff in friendly countries again.

we need to start mining for rare earth stuff in friendly countries again.

No we don't. Lynas mines rare earths down under, refines, and is in a partnership down in Texas for refining.

And China has moved an aircraft carrier close to some Japanese islands (which they appear to claim are theirs).

https://apnews.com/article/japan-china-warship-dis...

Last month they had a carrier in the Philippine Sea.

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/12/chinese-aircraft-...

As long as we maintain a significant presence, China would have a problem getting across the strait to Taiwan. They certainly could launch aircraft and missiles. But getting troop carriers across the strait would be a problem, unless we just weren't paying attention and left the area unguarded. Or if we elect the convict.

China has a lot of chip manufacturing, but I can't think of a single western company that has a fab there. In fact, last I knew China had banned chips from AMD and Intel in their PCs.

The Philippines doesn't have the money to build ships or infrastructure in any quantity. But they have slowly invited us back in (e.g. they are expanding the Subic naval base a bit to accommodate larger vessels). In a conflict, the Philippines will need a lot of help. Which would be in our best interests to provide, even if we didn't have a treaty.

As long as we maintain a significant presence, China would have a problem getting across the strait to Taiwan. They certainly could launch aircraft and missiles. But getting troop carriers across the strait would be a problem, unless we just weren't paying attention and left the area unguarded. Or if we elect the convict.

Trump was the guy that brought up China as a threat. Previous democrat Presidents have bent over backwards to enable trillions of dollars to flow to the ChiComs.

And the Chinese won't invade Taiwan right away with dudes wading ashore on assault crafts Douglas MacArthur-style. They'll come over as rando workers in small groups with their equipment smuggled in the bottom of innocent-looking cargo holds.

This is why every time there's a random person washing windows in Taipei or elsewhere, there's a Taiwanese Helper Cop (youngish unarmed dude with no gun but a phone and a radio) watching them do it.

As long as we maintain a significant presence, China would have a problem getting across the strait to Taiwan. They certainly could launch aircraft and missiles. But getting troop carriers across the strait would be a problem, unless we just weren't paying attention and left the area unguarded. Or if we elect the convict.

The Philippines is allowing us to set up on the northern islands, so we can move to guard the backside of Taiwan during hostilities.

China has a lot of chip manufacturing, but I can't think of a single western company that has a fab there. In fact, last I knew China had banned chips from AMD and Intel in their PCs.

True. We may need to make a DEI exception so Taiwan can use its Techies.

The Philippines doesn't have the money to build ships or infrastructure in any quantity. But they have slowly invited us back in (e.g. they are expanding the Subic naval base a bit to accommodate larger vessels). In a conflict, the Philippines will need a lot of help. Which would be in our best interests to provide, even if we didn't have a treaty.

We recognized the treaty and helped get the EEZ ruling from international courts. We give them refurbished ships, etc. I would've liked that radar on Palawan, but I'm happy with the other bases. The Chinese strategy is to overwhelm by numbers, which is effective. Shoot a 100 missiles at a carrier and a couple are bound to get through. So both China and the US need to avoid escalation to open hostilities. We both know it. But an increased presence will help both the PI and Taiwan.

So both China and the US need to avoid escalation to open hostilities. We both know it. But an increased presence will help both the PI and Taiwan.

Of course open hostilities would be bad. As I read recently, we need to call China's bluff (if it is, in fact, a bluff). It is Philippine waters, so they would have to invite us (I assume). But then we could chase Chinese CG and fishing vessels out of Philippine territory. And if they try to ram us, sink them (self defense).** So far the Philippines hasn't invited us to help them at sea, or invoked the defense treaty.

My concerns is that "face" is a very important cultural concept in China. Xi would lose face if he backed down. So I'm skeptical he would, and if we stand up to him there will be some shooting. China would lose, especially if the UK and Australia come in on our side. Not sure what Japan would do. They generally don't venture into waters away from Japan and start shooting. Also, if we (USA) are attacked, would NATO join the party? That would add the UK, French, and German navies to the mix.




**They already almost rammed one of our ships transiting the Taiwan Strait.

Trump was the guy that brought up China as a threat.

No. The Asian pivot under Obama is well known.

Previous democrat Presidents have bent over backwards to enable trillions of dollars to flow to the ChiComs.

Nixon, a Republican, is credited with opening up China. The Republicans came up with opening up China and trading with them would democratize China.

And the Chinese won't invade Taiwan right away with dudes wading ashore on assault crafts Douglas MacArthur-style. They'll come over as rando workers in small groups with their equipment smuggled in the bottom of innocent-looking cargo holds.

The Chinese infiltration of Taiwan has stepped up recently with the military as a prime target.

This is why every time there's a random person washing windows in Taipei or elsewhere, there's a Taiwanese Helper Cop (youngish unarmed dude with no gun but a phone and a radio) watching them do it.

News to me, Why window washers?

he Asian pivot under Obama is well known.

Uh, huh.

Nixon, a Republican, is credited with opening up China. The Republicans came up with opening up China and trading with them would democratize China.

And...? Nixon was using Beijing as a spoiler against the USSR and Vietnam both.

BTW, who was it that gave China Most Favored Nation status and enabled their rocket industry?

News to me, Why window washers?

No one performs work there alone; there's always someone watching. That's what I've observed there.

Of course open hostilities would be bad. As I read recently, we need to call China's bluff (if it is, in fact, a bluff). It is Philippine waters, so they would have to invite us (I assume). But then we could chase Chinese CG and fishing vessels out of Philippine territory. And if they try to ram us, sink them (self defense).** So far the Philippines hasn't invited us to help them at sea, or invoked the defense treaty.

My concerns is that "face" is a very important cultural concept in China. Xi would lose face if he backed down. So I'm skeptical he would, and if we stand up to him there will be some shooting. China would lose, especially if the UK and Australia come in on our side. Not sure what Japan would do. They generally don't venture into waters away from Japan and start shooting. Also, if we (USA) are attacked, would NATO join the party? That would add the UK, French, and German navies to the mix.

The Chinese are taught in school that the South China Sea is theirs. Austin said that an attack on PI military would trigger the treaty, but short of that is a good question - I think they are working it out now. I think an increased presence coupled with willingness to manhandle boats, etc., should get the point across without ruining "face". Evidently the ramming isn't considered an attack... yet. I think Marcos has already asked for the increased presence, but it isn't public.

The Air Force base that got covered with volcanic ash isn't suitable anymore, but we do need to increase our presence - the Chinese will know when we do it, and they have war hawks too, just like ours. We had clearance for more bases from Aquino that Duterte threw out, but now we're back im. We should get at least a 50 year guarantee after completion to build a base.

Dunno about NATO, but Europe has its own problems.

News to me, Why window washers?

No one performs work there alone; there's always someone watching. That's what I've observed there.

Wasn't going on when I was in Taiwan. Got any cites?

The Air Force base that got covered with volcanic ash isn't suitable anymore, but we do need to increase our presence - the Chinese will know when we do it, and they have war hawks too, just like ours. We had clearance for more bases from Aquino that Duterte threw out, but now we're back im. We should get at least a 50 year guarantee after completion to build a base.

That would be Clark. They've already repurposed it since Ramos tossed us out, so it probably wouldn't be practical in that respect. But by mid-2023 we had four bases, and one of them was an airport in Cagayan. I can't find quickly how large that base is, but it should be able to handle F35s at a minimum. I doubt it would have a runway for a B2, but -again- couldn't find the data.

I think an increased presence coupled with willingness to manhandle boats, etc., should get the point across without ruining "face".

Not sure I get this. He would lose face if he backed-down, especially after all of the rhetoric about the dashed line (SCS) and the renegade province (ROC). Unless he's willing to take that hit to his reputation, he'll have to escalate.

So, the Asian pivot was the beginning of recognizing the Chinese threat.

The Taiwan window washer story is an observation from right wing internet sites?

ME:I think an increased presence coupled with willingness to manhandle boats, etc., should get the point across without ruining "face".

1PG: Not sure I get this. He would lose face if he backed-down, especially after all of the rhetoric about the dashed line (SCS) and the renegade province (ROC). Unless he's willing to take that hit to his reputation, he'll have to escalate.

I see the escalation we've seen as a reflection of his authority and the need to distract from the economic problems at home. So if he takes the small land pieces on the Chinese mainland that Taiwan owns, and we are very firm in the seas and skies, that can go on indefinitely. What we're likely to see is brinksmanship. It will take us time to wean ourselves off China, but you have to hand it to China how far and fast they've come.

China's recent history is that of oppression and belligerence. I always thought it would be a natural for them to expand into Russia, but they made peace there. I don't think they'd mind having a clash or two with us, but not an all out war.

We don't want a war and I'm not confident we'd win it even though we have more experience, and that counts a lot. We just want to stare them down.

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