No. of Recommendations: 3
Today Trump says, "there will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender."
US oil prices immediately surge to a 2-year high.
Understandably. Unconditional surrender is a very different objective than just "blow up their nuclear program." Much harder to accomplish, and will take more time.
Of course, I don't think we should put much stock in what Trump says, at this point. He's perfectly fine saying that unconditional surrender is the goal, but then just settling for something far less and declaring victory and going home. There's no way to tell what he actually wants, of course - but I think a good guess right now is that he'd settle a Venezuela-type solution where the existing regime can stay in place but with someone who promises to play nice with the U.S. Not sure that's on offer, though...
