No. of Recommendations: 2
"<< Growth & Trend Timing. >>"
I note that the 20-fold 30-year return of the S&P 500 in the previous Jason Zweig thread assumes Long-term Buy & Hold.
After studying this stuff for a long time, I have come to the conclusion that "timing" is primarily an old person's game.
Every mechanical timing scheme I've examined reduces the overall long-term gains while also reducing the volatility.
A young person who is investing for retirement that is decades away should prefer the gains, not the volatile journey.
An old person who is living off his portfolio should care much more about the volatility than the long-term gains. Few retirees even have a particularly long term. And drawdowns for living expenses in a down period of volatility can exhaust the portfolio before the end of their life.
Although, for example William Shatner who is currently 94 years old, at 65 he *did* have a long-term.
