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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: PucksFool ✧✺  😊 😞
Number: of 86258 
Subject: Colorado R. outlook is not good.
Date: 09/12/26 12:19 PM
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The video at this link looks at the dire cuts that WILL happen this year, but next year the forecast and cuts are disastrous.

YouTube: Lake Mead Situation Just Got Worse... (Crisis Radar)

This is the creator's summary of the video.

Lake Mead set its all-time record low on September 1, 2026, and the Bureau of Reclamation has since published a month-by-month forecast for the lake through July 2028 in three columns: most probable, probable minimum and probable maximum. This video walks through those columns one month at a time, from October 2026 to next summer, and then reads the last row on the page. The question it answers is not whether the lake keeps falling. It is what happens on the specific dates the government has already written down.

Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States, stood at 1,038.93 feet on September 8, 2026, 26% full, after a record low of 1,038.82 feet on September 1. Lake Powell stood at 3,517 feet, 22% full. Reclamation's August 2026 24-Month Study sets Glen Canyon Dam's water-year 2027 release at 6.0 to 7.0 million acre-feet under the Low Elevation Infrastructure Protection Range of the new 2027–2028 Operating Guidelines. The Department of the Interior's Record of Decision of August 21, 2026 cuts 1.25 million acre-feet a year from Arizona, California and Nevada in 2027 and 2028. Nevada sued in U.S. District Court on August 24; the Central Arizona Project board authorized legal action on September 3. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is in an El Niño Advisory with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this winter. Hoover Dam's 1,035-foot hydropower threshold, the National Park Service's launch-ramp minimums at Hemenway Harbor, Callville Bay, Echo Bay and South Cove, and the 1,010-, 1,000-, 950- and 895-foot elevations in the operating plan are all covered.

IN THIS VIDEO
• The month each of the three federal forecast columns crosses the line that idles twelve of Hoover Dam's seventeen turbines, and the one sentence in Reclamation's technical appendix about what the dam is worth below it
• Why the lake stopped falling on September 1, and why the water authority's own spokesman says that will not last
• What takes effect on January 1, 2027, who takes the biggest cut, and the number Nevada is suing over
• The month next year the government's best case, the super El Niño case, still puts the lake below the boat ramp Las Vegas uses
• The April 2027 decision, and the three-foot margin on the trigger that would cut Lake Powell's release again
• The last row of the worst-case table, and how far it is from the elevation where water stops passing Hoover Dam
• What the woman who built the tunnel under the lake says about the federal numbers

SOURCES
Bureau of Reclamation (August 2026 24-Month Study: Probable Minimum, Probable Maximum and Inflow Scenarios; Upper Colorado Basin 24-Month Study memo, Aug 21, 2026; Lower Colorado Weekly Hydrologic Update, Sept 7, 2026; Lower Colorado daily levels; Post-2026 Record of Decision; Final EIS Technical Appendix 15, Dams and Electrical Power Resources; news releases Apr 17 and May 21, 2026) · U.S. Department of the Interior (Aug 21, 2026) · NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Aug 13, 2026) · National Park Service, Lake Mead NRA (Changing Lake Levels, Aug 20, 2026; Hemenway Harbor extension project) · Office of Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (Aug 24, 2026) · Las Vegas Review-Journal (Apr 30, Aug 7, Aug 20, Aug 21, 2026) · KTNV · 8 News Now · KJZZ (Aug 24, Aug 31, Sept 5, 2026) · KYMA (Sept 8, 2026) · Arizona's Family (Sept 4, 2026) · Circle of Blue (May 31, 2026) · Western Water (Aug 20, Aug 21, 2026) · The Colorado Sun (Aug 31, 2026) · Colorado Politics (Aug 17, 2026) · Straight Arrow News (Aug 7, 2026) · Newsweek (Aug 10, 2026) · Big Pivots (July 27, 2026) · The Nevada Independent · FOX5 Las Vegas (Aug 12, 2026) · Aspen Journalism (Apr 14, 2026) · Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado (July 15, 2026)

RELATED
Lake Mead water level forecast · Lake Mead 2027 · Lake Mead dead pool · Hoover Dam power 1,035 feet · Lake Mead 24-month study · Colorado River cuts 2027 · Lake Powell 3,490 · Nevada lawsuit Colorado River · Lake Mead boat ramps closing · El Niño Colorado River snowpack
This is a developing situation. Elevations cited are Bureau of Reclamation figures at publication and its projections are updated monthly.
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This community has written 86,214 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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