I am a little dubious about the claimed obviousness of upcoming advantages for US manufacturing. All manufacturers have inputs, and it may be rare for all of them to escape tariffs. Higher input costs aren't really great for any business making and selling stuff. Makers of washing machines didn't enjoy the steel tariffs.

And that's before you get to secondary effects (lower aggregate consumer spending power) and tertiary ones (trading partners raising tit-for-tat taxes on, or barriers to, your export goods).

I'm just guessing, as I don't have a MONIAC* handy, but I thing there's a decent chance that when things settle down the currently expected changes will be a net negative for at least half of US firms. Perhaps lower corporate income taxes on lower pre-tax profits from slightly-worse-off consumers in an economy that is slightly weaker overall from lower trade intensity?

I'm not saying it's all bad for manufacturers, but it's a complex system, with lots of moving parts and side effects.

Jim

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_Machine

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