No. of Recommendations: 7
always a great read. I wish he posted more often:
"Anyway, OK, so where am I going with this? Why does Buffett have so much cash on hand now, way more than before? Of course, nobody can say for sure. But some things do come to mind. First, Buffett did offer a hint that he doesn’t like asset prices up here, and is skeptical that rates can remain this low. Look at the fixed income holdings column. Despite long term rates going up to over 5%, back down to 4% and heading back up, he has not bought any bonds. Also, taxes are really low now, and he has said this is not sustainable either. He probably feels that tax rates will go up from here. So selling now and realizing a lower tax rate is not a bad idea, especially when his favorite stock is so expensive now.
But I don’t believe this is market timing, necessarily, either. He is just doing his usual thing. This large selling and huge cash pile may be more a function of how successful the Apple investment was, and how dominant it became in the portfolio. I know he is not the type to rebalance a portfolio because of too much concentration, but selling an expensive stock for a low tax rate before it may go up certainly feels right. If Apple didn’t do so well and get so big, would BRK have $300 billion in cash now? Nope. It is more about how incredible the Apple investment was rather than how bearish Buffett has become, I think. Without Apple, he would have had to sell his entire equity portfolio to raise cash so high. Instead of seeing this as a way to get more defensive by raising cash, it feels more like going back to normal after Apple boosted the equity portfolio so much (but again, he wouldn’t do this to rebalance. Definitely about Apple valuation and tax rate). As some fund managers say, the cash position is a result of investment actions, not the goal."
https://brklyninvestor.com/2024/11/06/cash/ 