No. of Recommendations: 4
The split in Thursday's oral argument between "officer" questions and "insurrection" questions will be an indicator of who wants to tackle the uncomfortable question (was J6 an insurrection against the Constitution?) and who wants an easy way out (did the 1868 Congress somehow exclude the President in the Section 3 language).
Trump winning big in South Carolina (above 60%) would make USSC intervening more difficult, as the voters indicated a clear preference.
Trump's Reply Brief to the USSC is wrong on the facts. In the Iowa Caucuses, Trump had a 30% margin, Harkin had a 64% margin, Mondale had a 32% margin. Harkin had the largest margin ever for a non-incumbent.
Trump's Reply Brief to the USSC begins with "President Donald J. Trump won the Iowa caucuses with the largest margin ever for a non-incumbent and the New Hampshire primary with the most votes of any candidate from either party."
Iowa caucuses
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses1984 (February 20): Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%)
1992 (February 10): Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%)
2024 (January 15): Donald Trump (51%), Ron DeSantis (21%), Nikki Haley (19%)
link to Reply Brief For The Petitioner
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/2... 