Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
 Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week!
Search BRK.A
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week!
Search BRK.A

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (70) |
Author: mungofitch ✹🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 15062 
Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
Date: 07/23/2024 12:41 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 9
1950 is close to a CAPE low; July 2024 close to a CAPE peak.

If we’re testing a a timing model that takes CAPE as its guide...

CAPE is useless as a timing guide*. You probably shouldn't even think of it that way. However it has outstanding predictive power for what you'll likely make over the longer term. For example, expectations for the 5-10 year horizon. It is the best single input for retirement planning, for example.

CAPE often gives you a pretty good idea of the likely returns from now until half way up the NEXT bull. Or half way down the next bear.

Jim

*The only exception is that when things are very cheap based on CAPE, it tends to pay off very quickly and pretty reliably.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (70) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Ticker or Board Name Author

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds