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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
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Author: Lear ✶🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
Date: 07/23/2024 12:21 PM
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I haven’t had a chance to try replicating the simulation, but there is a fundamental issue I believe is unaddressed:

1950 is close to a CAPE low; July 2024 close to a CAPE peak.

If we’re testing a a timing model that takes CAPE as its guide, we’d want neutral starting and endpoints. As is, both the points chosen would undersell CAPE-based timing, and inflate the S&P results, comparatively speaking. Briefly, we’re looking at the results from a climb from CAPE trough to CAPE peak, historically speaking. Right?
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