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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝🐝 BRONZE
SHREWD
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Number: of 555 
Subject: Re: S&P 500 closes above 5,000 for the first time
Date: 02/11/2024 3:50 PM
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Congrats especially to the thousands who never flinched and kept buying incrementally and automatically through the bear market of 2022 and 2020. You're all gonna make it.

Well, they certainly HAVE made it.
The future is as yet unwritten, so the "gonna make it" might perhaps be premature.

A couple of randomly selected numbers to ponder:
S&P 500 average price-to-sales ratio since 2000-Q1: 6.767 (we're not talking about the 1930s or the 1980s here)
Current: 10.636

To the (not perfect) extent that is a not-bad yardstick of modern valuation levels, implied current "overvaluation" is 57.2%.

Not depressing enough?
The apparent typical rate of return for the broad cap-weight US market in the last couple of decades isn't really typical, it would just be the "up" side of climbing a hill.
A trend of rising valuations could just as easily have been a trend of gradually falling valuations.

I'm just trying to keep everybody chipper!

Jim
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