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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: WatchingTheHerd HONORARY
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Number: of 48445 
Subject: Re: NYC HS Students Forced....
Date: 01/12/2024 12:17 PM
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So here's the great mystery for America to solve.

How do ALL of the following assumptions fit into the same brain at the same time without causing some sort of cosmic scale implosion?

* Joe Biden is completele senile, addled and inneffectual in his role.
* Joe Biden and his former crack-head son mastermind a multinational grift extracting bribes from foreign leaders.
* The federal government and law enforcement are a bunch of jack-booted thugs bent on taking our guns and destroying freedom.
* The federal government needs to sieze millions of acres of private land and create a Korea style DMZ around the entire US to keep out "fereners".

In any properly functioning brain, that collection of thoughts undergoing processing in the brain would normally cancel each other out and result in a more moderate view of reality.

Regarding this,

Biden has the opposite incentives. He wants the problems of the "waiting around for hearing" population to actually get solved, but he doesn't really want his base to know that he was doing anything to make immigration policy stricter. He just needs to fix the problem (so it disappears from the headlines), not have anyone think he's an immigration hardliner.

What is the evidence that Biden would secretly like as hardline of an approach on immigration as Republicans? Let's divide this question into two explicit parts:

1) Does Leader X want to drastically curtail / eliminate "headache" immigration (asylum immigration requiring months / years of court hearings, flat-out undocumented immigration)?

2) Does Leader X want to drastically curtail / eliminate LEGAL immigration (apply first from abroad, H1-B work visas, immigration to follow US spouse or parent)?

I think all parties publicly CLAIM they support category #1. Of course, the legislative behavior of Republicans makes it clear they absolutey want this ISSUE but do not necessarily want to SOLVE it. At the moment, being "tough" on immigration is a perceived positive attribute of Republicans and a perceived weakness / ineptitude on the part of Democrats so perpetuating the status quo appears to be a political win for Republicans.

It is absolutely clear Donald Trump is also in favor of #2. The actual consequences of #2 if ever achieved fit perfectly with the racist, xenophobic white Christian nationalism / facism that Trump has been pushing since 2016 and has taken over what seems like 80% of all remaining Republicans.

I honestly don't know what Biden's internal thinking is on immigration. As a relatively moderate liberal with a relatively good read on labor aspects of economics, I suspect Biden is ABSOLUTELY not in favor of a total ban on immigration (like it could ever happen) and I am sure he is NOT in favor of UNLIIMITED immigration. I suspect he thinks the correct yearly volume of immigration into the United States is somewhere BETWEEN

* the current yearly count of LEGAL, completed immigrations (about 123,000)
* the current yearly count of ATTEMPTED (legal + illegal) immigrations

It's difficult to find consistent stats year over year showing how many people were granted citizenship (completed immigration), how many were issued green cards (in process migrations), how many are in earlier phases of paperwork and how many "encounters" occur at the board with ICS. One statistic referenced about 1,00,000 green cards per year. Another referenced about 1.5 million total immigrations per year. Yet another referenced about 3.8 milion "encounters" per year -- obviously most of those were turned back if the other numbers are correct.

The question is which number should it be closer to?

The US lost 250,000 workers between the ages of 21 and 65 due to COVID deaths. There could be another 1.5 million workers in that age group who contracted COVID, lived through it, but now experience long-haul COVID problems such as brain fog, exhaustion, etc. that prevent them from working in their original capacity. Not all immigrants may be able to step into those shoes at all levels of the work force but allowing more immigration can allow labor markets to recover from the shock induced by the pandemic.

While America has many economic, political and social benefits to offer any potention immigrant, current Americans are failing to recognize it is HIGHLY UNUSAL for an arbitrary person to decide they want to leave everything that is familiar to them, many leaving virtally EVERYTHING they own behind, to come to ANY new country. It seems likely only about 10-15 percent of current immigration maps to people who are leaving behind an okay existence for the dream of a fantastic existence in America. The vast majority of immigrants are FLEEING horrendous social conditions and collapsing economies.

Someone stated upthread in this god-awful long thread something about the United States no longer being able to both act as the world's policeman (protecting shipping, etc.) and act as the world's social worker. For decades, the US attempted both roles while also interfering in the politics of foreign governments on behalf of perceived US economic / military interests (see Iran, Chile, Central America for starters). In many cases, the current turmoil causing these dislocations is tied to blowback from America's prior meddling. Either way, the current situation is proof we need to look at the ENTIRE chess board. Solving "immigration" in the Western Hemisphere will be impossible if we don't help tackle the problems generating the desire -- corrupt governments, drug trafficking violence and climate related issues.


WTH
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