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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal ✶☼  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: standard SIP screen postmortem
Date: 01/20/24 2:01 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 12
The change in performance happened quickly with these 51 screens, and so maybe conclusions can be found after only a few years of post-discovery.

             year      excess_return
average 1988 to 2007 24%
2008 16%
2009 -13%
2010 -1%
2011 0%


Elan wrote (in a separate thread): "If you start with a list of 100 screens, let's say, and rank them by 10 year performance, and the average screen lags the market by 5%, then you will randomly get a few screens that beat the market by a few points and a lot more screens that lag the market by more than 5%. You are virtually guaranteed that, all else being equal, a different set of screens will beat the market over the next ten years."

To test if I am being fooled by randomness, I picked 22 screens to follow. I then used WWL to pick 5 of these. This is only a paper test, with no real money, as I expect randomness to win.

These are the 12 standard SIP screens I would pick today (I would use depth 10):
FCF26
Fried_500
HighRelativeValue
LowMult
LowPSplus
Quality_Earnings
RS_100
Up5pct
Up5X3
VG_Horse
WK_Voom
YldEarnYear_SI

I would add the following 7 screens that have been posted on MI:
DivIncrease2019b
Nas100Momentum (depth 5)
Profitable2021
SP100EG (depth 5)
SP1500Fscore
SurpriseEstimates
TinyTitans2022c2

And I would add 3 ETF's that have gtr1 backtests:
zgCOWZ2023 (depth 100)
zgQUAL_2018 (depth 20)
zgSCHD2023a (depth 100)

Based on WWL, I would pick the following 5 screens to use in 2024:
Nas100Momentum
SP100EG
SP1500Fscore
SurpriseEstimates
TinyTitans2022c2
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
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