No. of Recommendations: 2
In response to the previous post on this thread, let me quote directly from the Abstract of the "End of an Era" paper. You can read it at
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/... Smolyansky says:
"the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower
profit growth and stock returns in the future. "He defined 1989-2019 as a "golden era" of excessive stock market returns. Well, it's obvious that the ever-declining interest rates part is wrong, isn't it? During 1993-94, interest rates on the 10-year T-bill
rose from 5.4% to almost 8%, yet the market did pretty well. These rates are far higher than we have today. Rates also rose during 1998-99.
He also says these "ever-declining" interest rates are unlikely to continue. Wrong again. The Fed just forecast not one but
three rate cuts next year. So interest rates
will decline next year.
His other assertion, that the Federal corporate tax rate of 21% is unlikely to remain that low, remains to be seen. In some states, like CA and NY, combined Federal and State income taxes can hit 28%.
The problem when writing about investing to a general message board is that one size does not fit all. You have to find a strategy that's right for you. Some of you may be retired or financially independent baby boomers like me. Others of you may be millenials, GenX'ers or GenZ-ers in your wealth building years. What I said was that, primarily for this latter group, who are decades away from retirement, a DCA strategy into an index fund worked for me in my younger years, despite two long-drawn-out and severe recessions.
