No. of Recommendations: 12
A big divergence isn't all that unexpected.
I think it's good to remember that the divergence might be in either direction, though : )
I think of it this way:
QQQE is something that tracks the average performance of that set of companies.
As it is so diversified, the earnings trend pretty well (other than dips in recessions of course) and can perhaps be extrapolated with some modest degree of confidence.
I think of QQQ as starting that result, plus or minus a very large random number based on the results of a tiny number of huge companies.
Performance might be better in any given period, might be worse, but you can't know which it will be as individual firms are not nearly as predictable as a very broad and balanced slate. The aggregate set of all company results is vastly more predictable than the results at any one firm, because the size of the economy sets bounds on the problem.
The corollary for me is this:
If you have a good understanding of the few supergiants and how they will do in the next year/two/three/etc, invest in them appropriately long or short, no need for QQQ.
If you don't have a deep understanding of them, then don't make an outsized bet on them. No need for QQQ : )
Jim
